Official Ice Out Date with statistic analysis

Spotters reported that all of the sheets of ice were gone from the lake on April 8th. That date was our date of ice out on Long Lake and reported to the DNR. 

Ben Cachiaras guessed the exact date this year. At the Annual Meeting (June 29th), we will draw from the 44 entries for the grand prize.  Last year ice out was May 3rd. In 2000, 2016 and 2017 ice out was around this date.

The following are the charts for Long Lake Ice Out as calculated by Vern Campbell.  The average date is April 20, so 2024 was about 12 days earlier than the average.  The charts indicate that although the Ice Out this year was slightly earlier than average, it is still within the bounds of normal random variation.  Just as a reminder, the UCL = May 22 and the LCL = March 19 are calculated values and are +/- 3 standard deviations from the mean date of April 20.  Therefore, basically if dates are normally distributed and fall between May 22 and March 19, then we can basically conclude that any deviation we see from the average is simply normal random variation.  Thus far, the Ice Out dates indicate random variation about the average ice Out date of April 20. 

(On the graph below, UCL = Upper Control Limit: LCL=Lower Control Limit) 

 

Ice Out on Long Lake?? Take a chance: Make a guess:

Welcome to the year of strange weather on Long Lake.  It is our tradition to have an Ice Out contest each year.  This year the deadline for submitting your guesses is March 1st.  Please pick your date and email it to longlakeliving@gmail.com (please note that is not the same address as this email)  

Help in making your decision: 

• Look at the historical data posted on our Ice Data tab   https://www.longlakeliving.org/p/ice-in-ice-out-data.html
• Look at long range weather forecasts
• FYI: Punxsutawney Phil: (the ground hog) predicted an early spring according to the newspapers. 
• Paul Douglas (weather guy ) in the Tribune wrote this on Thursday: "Average February snowfall at MSP is 9.5 inches.  Odds favor more (slushy) snow from mid-February into early April.  Don't take out the driveway stakes anytime soon.  An early spring is not preordained."

Take a chance.  Make a guess!  Those who select the winning date will be recognized on the website and at the Annual Meeting (Saturday June 29, 2024).  All participants in the contest will be placed in a drawing and one person will be chosen to receive a prize which will be awarded at the LLAA Annual Meeting Saturday morning, June 29, 2024.   Good Luck to all!

Reminders: (LLAA events are on our website calendar too) 

Sat, May 4, 2024 at 2 PM is Roadside Cleanup on County 20 and cleaning of the Public Accesses 

Sat, June 29, 2024 LLAA Annual Meeting at the Hubbard Community Center, Refreshments / Registration / Visiting at 9:30 AM with Business Meeting / Presenter at 10 AM. 

The July 4,2024 Flotilla
LLAA’s Annual 4th of July Flotilla will start at 4:00 pm on Thursday, July 4. We will gather at New Frontier Resort on the West side of the lake, starting at 3:50 pm. Follow the North or South Leaders as they lead off at 4:00 pm. If there is inclement weather (high winds, rain, thunderstorms) at 3:00 pm on that day, the Flotilla will be cancelled.

El Nino Weather patterns makes it harder to determine Ice-In date

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Those of us who winter on Long Lake spent December and the first part of January wondering if the ice would ever form. There were days when we saw white caps on the water..not ice.  At the same time, we were getting questions from our "snow bird" friends, "Has the lake frozen over yet?"  

Many points on the lake seemed to be frozen and then thaw again. On Jan 9th many people thought the lake had frozen over. But as you can see from the graphic above, the temperatures varied during that week.

Sharon Natzel's description of conditions during the week of January 8th: 

This year's ice-in spotters had to work very hard.  The weather just was not consistent. Our ice spotter that is positioned on the very steep west bank looking directly east across the lake, using binoculars, noticed a long narrow strip of water, running north to south, that opened up in the ice Tuesday 1/9/24 in the late afternoon.  The temperatures started dropping Thursday afternoon and by Friday, January 12, 2024, the lake finally froze over. Thank you to all the ice spotters around the lake.  It takes teamwork!  

 If you want more details of how Ice-In is determined and statistics, take a look at the Ice Data page .