Sharon Natzel, Lou Schultz and Lou's friend, Vern, have again collaborated to produce a revised "Ice In" graph. You can find the graph and also read an explanation of how the team gathered the data on our Ice Data page. The "official" ice in date is December 6th this year.
Please be careful going out on the ice, as conditions change. This just means there is ice all over the lake. It has nothing to do with depth of the ice on the lake.
Statement from Vern Campbell: "Here is the revised chart. As indicated, the 2011/12 date does appear to be a “special cause” or a rare occurrence. I’m sure Lou explained, but 99.73% of all occurrences would be expected between the Upper and Lower control limits (UCL/LCL). There is still a small chance though (0.27%) that any points outside these “limits” could be random and not necessarily abnormal or special. So there is a small probability (0.135%) of there being a point outside the January 13th Upper Limit. We would expect this to be a rare occurrence though if the system (Mother Nature) is stable."