Official Ice Out Date with statistic analysis

Spotters reported that all of the sheets of ice were gone from the lake on April 8th. That date was our date of ice out on Long Lake and reported to the DNR. 

Ben Cachiaras guessed the exact date this year. At the Annual Meeting (June 29th), we will draw from the 44 entries for the grand prize.  Last year ice out was May 3rd. In 2000, 2016 and 2017 ice out was around this date.

The following are the charts for Long Lake Ice Out as calculated by Vern Campbell.  The average date is April 20, so 2024 was about 12 days earlier than the average.  The charts indicate that although the Ice Out this year was slightly earlier than average, it is still within the bounds of normal random variation.  Just as a reminder, the UCL = May 22 and the LCL = March 19 are calculated values and are +/- 3 standard deviations from the mean date of April 20.  Therefore, basically if dates are normally distributed and fall between May 22 and March 19, then we can basically conclude that any deviation we see from the average is simply normal random variation.  Thus far, the Ice Out dates indicate random variation about the average ice Out date of April 20. 

(On the graph below, UCL = Upper Control Limit: LCL=Lower Control Limit) 

 

Ice Out on Long Lake?? Take a chance: Make a guess:

Welcome to the year of strange weather on Long Lake.  It is our tradition to have an Ice Out contest each year.  This year the deadline for submitting your guesses is March 1st.  Please pick your date and email it to longlakeliving@gmail.com (please note that is not the same address as this email)  

Help in making your decision: 

• Look at the historical data posted on our Ice Data tab   https://www.longlakeliving.org/p/ice-in-ice-out-data.html
• Look at long range weather forecasts
• FYI: Punxsutawney Phil: (the ground hog) predicted an early spring according to the newspapers. 
• Paul Douglas (weather guy ) in the Tribune wrote this on Thursday: "Average February snowfall at MSP is 9.5 inches.  Odds favor more (slushy) snow from mid-February into early April.  Don't take out the driveway stakes anytime soon.  An early spring is not preordained."

Take a chance.  Make a guess!  Those who select the winning date will be recognized on the website and at the Annual Meeting (Saturday June 29, 2024).  All participants in the contest will be placed in a drawing and one person will be chosen to receive a prize which will be awarded at the LLAA Annual Meeting Saturday morning, June 29, 2024.   Good Luck to all!

Reminders: (LLAA events are on our website calendar too) 

Sat, May 4, 2024 at 2 PM is Roadside Cleanup on County 20 and cleaning of the Public Accesses 

Sat, June 29, 2024 LLAA Annual Meeting at the Hubbard Community Center, Refreshments / Registration / Visiting at 9:30 AM with Business Meeting / Presenter at 10 AM. 

The July 4,2024 Flotilla
LLAA’s Annual 4th of July Flotilla will start at 4:00 pm on Thursday, July 4. We will gather at New Frontier Resort on the West side of the lake, starting at 3:50 pm. Follow the North or South Leaders as they lead off at 4:00 pm. If there is inclement weather (high winds, rain, thunderstorms) at 3:00 pm on that day, the Flotilla will be cancelled.

El Nino Weather patterns makes it harder to determine Ice-In date

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Those of us who winter on Long Lake spent December and the first part of January wondering if the ice would ever form. There were days when we saw white caps on the water..not ice.  At the same time, we were getting questions from our "snow bird" friends, "Has the lake frozen over yet?"  

Many points on the lake seemed to be frozen and then thaw again. On Jan 9th many people thought the lake had frozen over. But as you can see from the graphic above, the temperatures varied during that week.

Sharon Natzel's description of conditions during the week of January 8th: 

This year's ice-in spotters had to work very hard.  The weather just was not consistent. Our ice spotter that is positioned on the very steep west bank looking directly east across the lake, using binoculars, noticed a long narrow strip of water, running north to south, that opened up in the ice Tuesday 1/9/24 in the late afternoon.  The temperatures started dropping Thursday afternoon and by Friday, January 12, 2024, the lake finally froze over. Thank you to all the ice spotters around the lake.  It takes teamwork!  

 If you want more details of how Ice-In is determined and statistics, take a look at the Ice Data page . 

 

LLAA Foundation sends a "thank you" to donors

picture by Sharon Natzel of perch stocking at the north access (video link below)

December is upon us and we find everyone busy with holiday celebrations and
activities. The Long Lake Area Association (Hubbard County) Foundation would
like to take this time to thank everyone for their generous donations.The
donations received help to preserve and protect Long Lake in many different
ways.

We are happy that we are able to continue and support additional watercraft
inspection hours at our public accesses for the summer of 2024. This past fall we
utilized funds for Aquatic Invasive Species (AIS) mitigation efforts when Starry
Stonewort (SSW) was discovered. Abatement plans for SSW and any other AIS
that may be discovered in our lake will be an on-going project and will require a
reserve of money to allow us a swift action plan as things arise.

This year our Fisheries Committee is working with the MN DNR on supplemental
stocking of walleye on the lake. We have been approved to stock 240 lbs of
walleye fingerlings in Fall of 2024. This amount is in addition to the current DNR
stocking plan. Programs like these are also funded by donations to the LLAA
Foundation. Here is a link to the Fish Management page on our website. https://www.longlakeliving.org/p/fish-management-information.html

In the fall the LLAA Foundation in collaboration with Hubbard Township applied
for and was awarded a grant for a CD3 unit which is in place at the south access.
Our responsibility is to cover the annual costs associated with the upkeep and
running of the unit. The Fall newsletter on our website https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qbLx9T90BqCEwwoj9ulooIpqYZFZjIV7/view has more information on this recent endeavor and we are excited to see its implementation next summer.

While we have reached our present fundraising goal, the new projects and
responsibilities taken on by the LLAA Foundation requires us to constantly
evaluate our financial needs. Making a donation to the Foundation at any time
during the year is very much appreciated!  Here’s how:

https://llaafoundation.blogspot.com/p/llaa-foundation-donate-electronically.html

Family Gathering for the Holiday?

 

Long Lake History: We need your input!
With another summer spent at the lake, comes new memories and stories to share.  Have you checked out our history tab on the website?  It features memories spanning many years shared by Association members. Early this past summer a team revised the Long Lake History section of our website:  (https://www.longlakeliving.org/p/long-lake-history.html). It is now organized by decades to make it easier to find a story. 

Help Us Share Lake Memories
Please take some time to read these memories. Then, take the next step to document some of your memories and share them with me to post on the website. Our team can help you with editing, etc.

We're also looking for Memories/Photos of Family Properties Celebrating 100 Years
 

The west side of Long Lake started to be developed as a summer recreation area in the late 1920s. This means we have many lots owned by families that are celebrating 100 years on Long Lake! The Local newspaper is publishing some of these stories, but they are not shareable on our website. If you are a hundred year family cabin, please share your family's memories with us directly.

We’re also Looking for Memories and Photos from 1970 to the Current Year such as:

• Water sports: What was your ski boat like? How did you learn to ski?
• Fishing stories can include hooking everything from stumps to really big fish. What type of boat did you use for fishing?
• Campfire stories, or songs

Take time to listen to the family stories this holiday season. Write the stories down and send your memories to longlakeliving@gmail.com